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While everyone else whacks Sarah Palin, I'll write a Devil's Advocate brief for the woman.
The Republican brand is in terrible shape, and a few years in the minority will do them a world of good. America loves an underdog, the Republicans really need a few years in the wilderness to retool and reinvent themselves.
Obama will be forced into many politically unpalatable decisions. Consider Bush the Wiser, who broke his promises on No New Taxes. Why did he break that promise? He viewed the Presidency through the eyes of responsible stewardship, a very East Coast noblesse oblige viewpoint, for he was fundamentally a good man. Obama broke his promise on public campaign finances: he has already shown himself capable of breaking promises on an as-needed basis
Sarah Palin is not such an evil person. Let's not slang her unduly. She's a fresh face, little different than Barack Obama when he gave his marvelous keynote speech in 2004. She represents a viewpoint I find unattractive, but many people feel as she does about these issues.
Considering Point 1, how will the Republicans best face their years in the wilderness? Sarah Palin is preferable to Mittens Romney or the Usual Suspects, anyone can see that, even this grizzled old Liberal. In time, Palin will assume the patina of celebrity, as Obama grew into the mantle of his fame. People never forgot Obama's speech in 2004, and he went to the Senate on the strength of it. It is good to be defeated early, at least once: Abraham Lincoln was trounced a few times, but emerged as a dark horse candidate for the Republicans.
Napoleon Bonaparte said greatness is the combination of circumstances and the man. Sarah Palin may be unknown at present and McCain may very well lose. Do not dismiss this woman, we shall hear more from her in due time. In the spirit of fall-two-times rise-three-times, Barack Obama leveraged his defeat at the hands of Bobby Rush to a much greater gain: had Obama won, he would merely be a minor league Representative from an overwhelmingly black district in Illinois, and there he would be today. Why did Barack Obama choose Chicago? Raised in Hawaii and overseas, he had no connections to the city. Obama came to Chicago and especially the Hyde Park area because it was the ideal springboard for a black, liberal politician. Obama had bigger dreams than his opponents. He put himself in the path of destiny.
Sarah Palin emerges from Alaska, the last frontier: she did not need to move somewhere to be cast in the mold of older paradigms. She represents the oldest and most powerful of all American political models, the small-town politician from the frontier. America loves the improbable and was raised with the legend of the American West. It is the legend which brought Reagan to power. Do not underestimate her appeal to a certain sector of the American body politic: she might raise the hackles of Liberals, but that is no bad thing: a politician is better defined by his collection of determined enemies than vacillating allies of convenience.
Yasser Arafat, that murderous old rogue and bank robber once said something wise: you may choose your friends, but your enemies choose you. McCain may have driven off a few people by his choice of Veep, but he has also solidified his support and opposition. If McCain loses, this choice will redefine him, for heretofore, his enemies have scoffed at his flip-flopping on this issue and that. Hereafter, his many Conservative naysayers will be forced to factor Sarah Palin into their calculus. If only to silence his Conservative critics, McCain has chosen shrewdly. If McCain goes down to defeat, he will have left a new avatar of Conservatism behind: a fierce, pretty little gun-totin' mama from Alaska. Those who shoot at Sarah Palin must be prepared to face the consequences of knocking her down hard, for America especially older Conservative Americans will not take kindly to Sarah Palin being dragged over the coals by Joe Biden.
Sarah Palin cannot be easily attacked, and is less vulnerable than might initially appear. The shibboleth of Inexperience hasn't worked attacking Barack Obama, it will not work with Palin. Were I advising anyone mounting an attack on her, I would lure her out into the open with her policies on abortion and set a woman to that task. American women are bitterly divided on the issue and vary widely on their moral positions on abortion. Only a woman can effectively attack a woman. Obama, usually an audacious man, played his Veep choice cautiously:
Democrats may be united behind Obama but less so behind Biden. Biden will be completely unable to engage Palin where she is weakest and will be obliged to play to her strengths. He cannot attack her as an outsider, for he's a career politician. He cannot attack her on the basis of foreign policy, where she has no experience at all, for she can play rope-a-dope, letting Biden attack her all the live-long day, every caustic word he utters is a net loss for the Democrats. He cannot condescend to her, for Veep is generally speaking a nothing job: any Veep mandate is doled out by the President himself. Even with abortion and gun control, the attack cannot be pressed. She must be ambushed, drawn into a kill zone to commit unforced errors, and Biden's just enough of a lawyer to do it. Palin will be even weaker on the attack: there is the minefield upon which Palin will come to grief.
Is Palin shrewd enough to find her way through that minefield? I do not know, but she is better served to play defense, not offense. Will the Democrats be prudent and cynical enough to let her go on the attack? That is the real question. Obama has proven capable of running a tight campaign. McCain has offered a strong gambit: will the Democrats be stupid enough to take it? Conversely, will Palin herself be stupid enough to go on the attack? If the Republicans have any sense, they will leave that pretty little pawn right where it is, at the crossroads of the chessboard.
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- BlaiseP's Column, All of Newsvine
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 | McCain Should Have Done His Homework Before Picking Palin | cards6 | Sun Aug 31 | 0 |
| Sarah Palin and History! | Getitrightthistime | Sat Aug 30 | 3 |
| Confessions of a Dowd hater - Maureen Dowd's Palin article got me to laugh, but then cry | politicalcenter | Sun Aug 31 | 12 |
| McCain, No you didn't! Sarah Palin is NOT Hillary | Millie-468561 | Sat Aug 30 | 1 |
| McCain's veep choice - Why do I keep picturing another 'Mondale-Ferraro' disaster? | steve1151 | Fri Aug 29 | 1 |
- Public Discussion (31)
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{"commentId":2660977,"authorDomain":"jfxgillis"}
Blaise:
I could buy into everything you say but for the Creationism. It's intolerable in this day and age for one who would lead the greatest and most technologically advanced nation.
Sorry, I know you're sensitive on many of these religion v. science things and I don't want to start a fight. I'm just sayin' ... it's a dealbreaker. You can be a school board chair somewhere, or even a United States Senator from Oklahoma and live by magical thinking.
But not President of the USA.
{"commentId":2660977,"threadId":"344366","contentId":"1807186","authorDomain":"jfxgillis"}
- 8 votes
#1 - Sat Aug 30, 2008 3:59 PM EDT{"commentId":2661121,"authorDomain":"kpr37"}
but not President and hold these creationism views (really) George Bush ???
{"commentId":2661121,"threadId":"344366","contentId":"1807186","authorDomain":"kpr37"}
- 6 votes
{"commentId":2661444,"authorDomain":"barry-rutherford"}
Only a woman can effectively attack a woman. Obama, usually an audacious man, played his Veep choice cautiously:
Based on what you say and that Palin is a relative unknown why would/should the Democratic election squad bother with engaging with her at all ? Would it not just be better strategically to keep the heat on McCain....
{"commentId":2661444,"threadId":"344366","contentId":"1807186","authorDomain":"barry-rutherford"}
- 4 votes
{"commentId":2663026,"authorDomain":"wharrison55"}
A generally sound analysis with a few quibbles.
People never forgot Obama's speech in 2004, and he went to the Senate on the strength of it. It is good to be defeated early, at least once: Abraham Lincoln was trounced a few times, but emerged as a dark horse candidate for the Republicans.
Napoleon Bonaparte said greatness is the combination of circumstances and the man.
I would agree that Obama was thrust upon the national stage with that speech, but the second paragraph is more apt because of the implosion of his opponent Jack Ryan and the last-minute substitution of Alan Keyes who had to hastily set up household in IL to even qualify to be his "opponent". Barack Obama is now involved in his first real race (he was never going to beat Bobby Rush in a primary fight) and while his campaign was sure-footed in running a nomination battle among Democrats it's been straight downhill since then as regards the general despite the candidates attempts to "refine" himself into a centrist.
McCain is indeed seeking to unite the GOP base, energize it (he raised $7 million just yesterday after the announcement) and retain the winning 55% advantage George W. Bush enjoyed among married independent women. To my knowledge, while pro-life Gov. Palin is not ultramontane as regards reproductive issues and the views American women have on abortion is highly complicated to say the least. Democrats have been trying to scare women based on this single issue for numerous election cycles now and it has not worked. No reason to expect it to work this time out either. The "creationism" claim is another bit of nonsense that won't work on the larger playing field.
Insofar as the debates are concerned, absent a gaffe of immense proportions (and even here the "Eastern Europe is not under Soviet domination" gaffe didn't do in Gerry Ford against Carter, indeed Ford probably would have won had the election been held two weeks later), the debates are primarily about perceptions versus substance. Nothing I've seen so far from Gov. Palin (including an hour long interview with Maria Bartiromo on the oil and gas bidness in Alaska and the larger country) indicates to me she won't be able to more than hold her own with the bombastic Biden whose reputation rests primarily on the sound of his own voice. The one caveat I will place on this is an early stumble but that's been neutralized for at least the next week.
As a McCain supporter, the thing that encourages me most are the shrill cries I'm hearing from the usual suspects on the left. Obama's "bounce" will be limited to 8 pts. and that too will probably vanish over the course of the next two weeks. Obama's speech, a mixture of Demopablum, half-truths, and outright falsehoods is ripe for the picking. Game on!!
{"commentId":2663026,"threadId":"344366","contentId":"1807186","authorDomain":"wharrison55"}
- 3 votes
{"commentId":2663294,"authorDomain":"spotlightdiva"}
I agree that Democratic attacks should be focused on McCain, not Palin--however, I think it's important to attack McCain for this choice, since he is the one who has said how important experience, judgement, and national security should be to America in choosing its president while he has recklessly chosen someone "a heartbeat away from the presidency" who lacks in all of these arenas.
The hard honest truth is McCain is a geezer! He's battled a dangerous type of cancer four times, and would be the oldest President we've ever had. If McCain thinks the qualities he has outlined are so important in a President, knowing the uncertainty of his future, he should have chosen his veep much more shrewdly.
{"commentId":2663294,"threadId":"344366","contentId":"1807186","authorDomain":"spotlightdiva"}
- 4 votes
{"commentId":2665119,"authorDomain":"wharrison55"}
Wish in one hand, spit in the other and we'll see which wish of yours is granted in November.
{"commentId":2665119,"threadId":"344366","contentId":"1807186","authorDomain":"wharrison55"}
- 3 votes
{"commentId":2661386,"authorDomain":"mightyblogger"}
Read views from key Women on this at the Denver Women's Examiner
{"commentId":2661386,"threadId":"344366","contentId":"1807186","authorDomain":"mightyblogger"}
- 1 vote
#2 - Sat Aug 30, 2008 4:43 PM EDT{"commentId":2661736,"authorDomain":"newbroom"}
She's a fresh face, little different than Barack Obama when he gave his marvelous keynote speech in 2004. (BlaiseP)
I think there was and is an obviously huge difference...
. In 1984, Palin won the Miss Wasilla beauty contest, then finished second in the Miss Alaska pageant,[4] at which she won a college scholarship.[3] In the Wasilla pageant, she played the flute and won "Miss Congeniality."[5][6]
Palin holds a Bachelor of Science degree in communications-journalism from the University of Idaho, where she also minored in political science.
that....and this?
A graduate of Columbia University and Harvard Law School, where he served as president of the Harvard Law Review, Obama worked as a community organizer and practiced as a civil rights attorney before serving in the Illinois Senate from 1997 to 2004. He taught constitutional law at the University of Chicago Law School from 1992 to 2004.
{"commentId":2661736,"threadId":"344366","contentId":"1807186","authorDomain":"newbroom"}
- 4 votes
#3 - Sat Aug 30, 2008 5:25 PM EDT{"commentId":2661929,"authorDomain":"dwing"}
In a nation of 300 million people McCain couldn't find anyone more qualified? I can think of ten women off the top of my head who are conservative and more qualified. Not only this, but it is insulting that he had only previously met her just once prior to his selection. She is a gimmick, plain and simple.
{"commentId":2661929,"threadId":"344366","contentId":"1807186","authorDomain":"dwing"}
- 8 votes
#4 - Sat Aug 30, 2008 5:43 PM EDT{"commentId":2662146,"authorDomain":"tgstk2"}
Thank you for providing some balance to the Palin coverage and newsvine commentary! I'm an Obama supporter, but I think Palin will bring some good discussion to this election if people will just get over their initial knee-jerk reactions.
{"commentId":2662146,"threadId":"344366","contentId":"1807186","authorDomain":"tgstk2"}
- 2 votes
#5 - Sat Aug 30, 2008 6:07 PM EDT{"commentId":2662822,"authorDomain":"brianford"}
I don't oppose Sarah Palin, so much as I oppose the the reasons for selecting her. She's not picked to shatter the glass ceiling, or because it's a good thing that a woman is on the ticket -- she's picked because it will *seem* like a good thing and earn faux cred amongst women who aren't paying much attention. If anything, he's using her, and it's a step back for women.
After months of bashing Obama, McCain picks a person who pretty much amounts to a Republican Obama. And, the similarities are the parts that McCain focused most of his attacks against, when it came to Obama.
The pick baffles me. It feels so short term. The secrecy with which he chose her seems destined to cause resentment from other GOP officials. Short term, I can see how this would be a great distraction. Long term? Seems likely to cause problems.
{"commentId":2662822,"threadId":"344366","contentId":"1807186","authorDomain":"brianford"}
- 7 votes
#6 - Sat Aug 30, 2008 7:15 PM EDT{"commentId":2662976,"authorDomain":"spiffie"}
I've got to agree. The pick of Palin says almost nothing about Palin herself, but it says a great deal about McCain.
{"commentId":2662976,"threadId":"344366","contentId":"1807186","authorDomain":"spiffie"}
- 4 votes
{"commentId":2663519,"authorDomain":"redruby"}
I appreciate your thoughts Blaise. It will be interesting to see how this all plays out.
{"commentId":2663519,"threadId":"344366","contentId":"1807186","authorDomain":"redruby"}
- 3 votes
#7 - Sat Aug 30, 2008 8:29 PM EDT{"commentId":2664865,"authorDomain":"johny"}
a fascinating analysis.
but, veep is a "nothing job"? cheney?
"there is a fair amount of circumstantial evidence that Cheney, not Bush, is the real power at the White House and Bush the figurehead."
-Boston Globe
"'He is the president's closest, most trusted confidential adviser, and he's also the president's closest and most trusted agent, the person who the president asks to take on various tough assignments,' says a senior White House official."
-U.S. News & World Report
{"commentId":2664865,"threadId":"344366","contentId":"1807186","authorDomain":"johny"}
- 4 votes
#8 - Sat Aug 30, 2008 11:02 PM EDT{"commentId":2665335,"authorDomain":"blai"}
{"commentId":2665485,"authorDomain":"johny"}
i do not agree with you that bush let cheney "run amok". the whole bush administration operated like a tightly-coordinated machine. bush needed cheney, he relied on him, they were a team.
it's congress and the citizenry that let the administration run amok.
{"commentId":2665485,"threadId":"344366","contentId":"1807186","authorDomain":"johny"}
- 1 vote
{"commentId":2664938,"authorDomain":"johny"}
the dems would be totally unwise to ignore palin. they need to go on the offensive against every vulnerability the republicans have. sure, they should not be impulsive, they should study their opponents carefully. but to ignore her would be as stupid as kerry ignoring the swift-boaters.
{"commentId":2664938,"threadId":"344366","contentId":"1807186","authorDomain":"johny"}
#9 - Sat Aug 30, 2008 11:11 PM EDT{"commentId":2667043,"authorDomain":"youssef51"}
Excellent analysis. I learned plenty. This kind of writing is almost enough to get me to resume using Newsvine on a regular basis.
I personally see McCain's VP pick as shrewd - and panicked at the same time.
I would just suggest that everyone keep their eye on the Intrade prediction / option market for Sen. Obama as the next President of the United States.
That market currently sees a 60% chance of the senator from Illinois becoming president and a corresponding 40% chance of the senator from Arizona doing the same. Given Intrade's astonishing track record of prediction accuracy I take these numbers seriously.
{"commentId":2667043,"threadId":"344366","contentId":"1807186","authorDomain":"youssef51"}
- 2 votes
#10 - Sun Aug 31, 2008 4:52 AM EDT{"commentId":2670356,"authorDomain":"cletuswilbury"}
Great read, as usual.
I'm not so sure Palin can't be attacked on foreign policy, if done wisely. I don't know how much she knows about the issues. Based on here education, I'm guessing she might not be that knowledgeable in the foreign policy arena. I'm curious what you mean by rope-a-dope, I'm thinking deflecting off question on foreign policy. That become obvious if she doesn't do i carefully. Dems should keep asking question regarding her foreign policy views. I'm curious as to what they are anyway.
{"commentId":2670356,"threadId":"344366","contentId":"1807186","authorDomain":"cletuswilbury"}
- 1 vote
#11 - Sun Aug 31, 2008 2:40 PM EDT{"commentId":2670710,"authorDomain":"blai"}
{"commentId":2676068,"authorDomain":"cletuswilbury"}
Good example of rope-a-dope on foreign policy, thanks!
{"commentId":2676068,"threadId":"344366","contentId":"1807186","authorDomain":"cletuswilbury"}
- 1 vote
{"commentId":2676890,"authorDomain":"a0ted"}
Dems should keep asking question regarding her foreign policy views
Biden did not vote for the Gulf War I when United Nations agreed and we had great support around the world. However, he gave GWB the green light for the Gulf War II.
How can he reconcile both judgements if President? His experience went to the drain.
{"commentId":2676890,"threadId":"344366","contentId":"1807186","authorDomain":"a0ted"}
{"commentId":2677091,"authorDomain":"cletuswilbury"}
Good point det. I was all for Gulf War I, to kick the Iraqi aggressor out of Kuwait with lotsa international support. Not a good vote by Biden, we all make mistakes. Or, maybe he was right, and there was a better way?
{"commentId":2677091,"threadId":"344366","contentId":"1807186","authorDomain":"cletuswilbury"}
{"commentId":2675414,"authorDomain":"youthinasia"}
Thank you for that superb analysis. It is certainly refreshing to read a piece that is not simply a screed for or against Gov. Palin.
Many conservatives are not voting or voting against McCain because they believe it is in the long term interests of their party and (real as opposed to stated) conservative values to do so. Indeed, the GOP does need to spend some time in the wilderness and reinvent itself. Bringing people like Gov. Palin to the forefront is a good move. They desperately need a different brand and a new face. Old, wealthy, corrupt, perhaps decrepit and thoroughly compromised white guys will not save the party from permanent marginalization and obsolescence. While I personally would have real problems supporting someone who is obviously hostile to science, as the governor appears to be, nonetheless I find her far more appealing than any of the prominent GOP leftovers from the Reagan years. (Though she really needs to work on her public speaking voice.)
I appreciate your depiction of George H.W. Bush who also struck me as a decent man though I disagreed with some of his policy decisions. Once he became the president in fact (not merely acting president as he had been under Reagan), I think he felt that sound government was in fact necessary and desirable. He did not do his utmost to weaken, destroy and corrupt every function of the entire federal government, as his son appears to be doing. Frankly had the senior Bush been re-elected in '92 we would not be in nearly as much trouble as we are today. He was pilloried from the right and left (especially candidate Bill Clinton) for his proposal to de-weaponize stocks of plutonium and uranium and dismantle existing nuclear warheads in the former Soviet Republics and Russia. As I recall, the proposed price tag was something like $20 billion, a bargain when one looks at the threat posed by this material today. That policy (with which Joe Biden agreed as I recall) would have stood a chance of success had he stayed in the White House and the fabled peace dividend of the post Cold War era might actually have been realized under Bush I.
{"commentId":2675414,"threadId":"344366","contentId":"1807186","authorDomain":"youthinasia"}
- 4 votes
#12 - Sun Aug 31, 2008 10:58 PM EDT{"commentId":2676050,"authorDomain":"CurtisWimer"}
I just can't even stand McCain any more. I supported him in 2000 because he wasn't George Bush. This dirty game has Carl Rove written all over it. I guess the pact Rove, Libby and friends made is working out just great for them. Control the country regardless of what the American public wants because they think they know what is best. I never belonged to a party, but I do now...
Si Se Puede
{"commentId":2676050,"threadId":"344366","contentId":"1807186","authorDomain":"CurtisWimer"}
- 2 votes
#13 - Mon Sep 1, 2008 12:02 AM EDT{"commentId":2676824,"authorDomain":"a0ted"}
This dirty game has Carl Rove written all over it. I guess the pact Rove, Libby and friends made is working out just great for them
What do you mean? Each party has their own pitbull.
{"commentId":2676824,"threadId":"344366","contentId":"1807186","authorDomain":"a0ted"}
{"commentId":2676768,"authorDomain":"a0ted"}
Blaise,
I don't have to tell you how much I enjoy your article and is so good that I am sure that many read it but did not want to coment.
Im my simpleton way
Sarah Palin is just as ambitious as Obama. She wants the same changes that I wanted for a long time and made it possible, yes in a minor scale of a State but she achieved in short time a lot.
Sitting w/the hawkish lawyers of the oil companies is not a picnic but she delivered the best for the people that she represents. Sarah for us conservative women that are unhappy with the old US Congress sitting for life almost, pro-life, etc., that she is our feminine version of Obama, she is our Hope also.
A couple of days ago she was unknown, today she is a star.
{"commentId":2676768,"threadId":"344366","contentId":"1807186","authorDomain":"a0ted"}
- 1 vote
#14 - Mon Sep 1, 2008 1:29 AM EDT{"commentId":2742801,"authorDomain":"gedanken"}
With the pick of Sarah Palin, John McCain muted his most effective line of attack against Obama with indepedent voters.
Sarah Palin and Alaska Secession Movement:
(1) Sarah Palin attended the Alaskan Independence Party's convention while she was mayor of Wasilla.
(2) Palin welcomed party members to its 2008 convention.
(3) The Alaskan Independence Party's current leader said that Palin attended the party's 1994 convention.
(4) Palin's husband was a registered party member from 1995 through 2002.
(5) Joseph Vogler the founder of the Alaskan Independence Party said "I'm an Alaskan, not an American. I've got no use for America or her damned institutions."
(6) The Party proposed the possibility of joining Canada.
(7) Joseph Vogler was buried in Canada, he did not want to be buried in "America".
{"commentId":2742801,"threadId":"344366","contentId":"1807186","authorDomain":"gedanken"}
- 2 votes
#15 - Thu Sep 4, 2008 12:05 AM EDT{"canLink":false,"threadId":"344366","isPrivate":false}
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